So I think what we see in the show when he ventures out on profiling missions and what Tesla has described here masterfully is not the Mulder we usually encounter - it's Mulder on cocaine, kind of. Extremely competent, very analytic, details-obsessed, he is constantly looping between his intuitive and analytic functions and completely outside of his reflection zone, when he would have time to pay attention to his own emotional and sensory responsiveness - hence the insomnia, the rash choice to take advantage of the Scully-riding-him-situation and the incapacity to perceive that she might just be as in love with him as he is. I think it also makes it more probable for him to risk her, although as he says "he [only] had a good guess" of what the press conference might provoke in the killer. It was a calculated risk, something he was aware of but not entirely sure was probable. Although, I think this is an argument against Tesla glorifying him as putting Scully at risk is actually a lapse in judgement, although it may be a very practical move. It is, however, something he would never do in his right mind and quite a cold, emotionless calculation on his part. He is cracking, here. So, thank God for fic resolutions, this wouldn't have flown so easily in real life. What the second chapter does to Mulder in terms of amplifying his guilt and God Complex and also the PTSD has already been discussed here and is an explanation, albeit not an excuse for his looping ways.
As for the casefic, from a professional point of view, this profile is all over the place and inconclusive at best, contradictory at worst but I have my problems with the art of profiling anyway. It is a very controversial method and this may be coloring my judgement.
Anyway, as you said, this is a MSR story first and foremost and it was a relief to have such a skillful and sex-savvy Mulder to lust for in addition to having him psychologically believable.
Thank you for the amazing classic fics I found through this journal - keep up the good work!